EUROPE OF SEARCHING FOR STABILITY

The Russian-Ukrainian war quickly became the largest since World War II armed conflict in Europe. To surpass it even at the internationalization (say, through the involvement of the aggressors in Belarus) is unlikely will succeed. The Kremlin's blitzkrieg has failed, and the Russian-Ukrainian war has lasted longer the French Wehrmacht campaign in 1940. There are losses suffered by the aggressors huge, in some positions they exceed the weapons leading European countries. It is obvious that the confrontation of the largest country the world with the largest country in Europe will make everyone respond without exception to the world centers of power. There is another reason for this: Russia (nuclear state) is unprovoked attacked Ukraine, which voluntarily renounced its nuclear arsenal in the firstmid-90s. This attack undermines the existing system of world security, forces think about reforming it now.

Another important point: the Russian-Ukrainian war became a confrontation between the two former republics of the USSR. Success of Ukraine (political, economic, integration) to existing alliances or to create one's own) is a huge challenge for Russia, and that's about it evidence of the behavior of racist occupiers in the suburbs of Kiev.

 Mass killings civilians, authorized looting of the occupiers were the result of state the Kremlin's policy of dehumanization of Ukrainians in recent years. I would like to draw your attention to another important point: Russia is competing with Ukraine on the market of grain, so the Russian-Ukrainian war can provoke significant foodcrisis in the Middle East and Africa. The Kremlin's desire to oust is obvious Ukrainian grain from traditional markets, and it needs to be countered with help asymmetric measures, in particular, the creation of a dry port in cooperation with Poland. IN Ukraine does not forecast food shortages, but the importance of our country for food security of the world will become clear to many. Our state is a net-exporter of sunflower oil, and this is also a significant factor.

Surprises with a sequel

Contrary to the Kremlin's thoughts and the forecasts of many Western analysts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not fall apart under the blows of the aggressor, but managed to organize active defense, successfully deterring the overwhelming forces of the Russians. Aviation and system the air defense, despite the lively reports of the Russian military, is causing significant damage to the invaders, who lost about one and a half hundred planes and helicopters. Score hundreds of lined and burned tanks and armored vehicles of the Russian army, dozens of units became trophies of Ukrainian defenders. Military experts note the high tactical training of Ukrainian defenders, noting the successful interaction of the Armed Forces and other law enforcement agencies, primarily Territorial units defense. Despite the promises of the representatives of the fifth column of mass media, the political class of Ukraine does not immersed in numerous quarrels. President Volodymyr Zelensky has become a recognized symbol resistance of Ukraine, which is listened to attentively both inside Ukraine and abroad. Intensive schedule of communication between Zelensky and fellow citizens and foreigners partners suggests that his group of speechwriters was reinforced by representatives USA or UK. However, the consensus inside looks more important country, which is reflected in the adequate position of most popular politicians. Prohibition of pro-Russian projects of the National Security and Defense Council and the Sharia Party by the decision of the National Security and Defense Council, a number of left-wing parties seems a logical, though not legally sound, step.

At the same time, a number of questions arose about the principles of forming a television pool information marathon UArazom, which did not get a group of pro-Ukrainian TV channels. In addition, they were excluded from the digital broadcasting system in early April. Actually censoring. The Ukrainian economy is suffering heavy losses, with a fall in GDP ranging from 35 to 50 percent, but a number of measures to keep the situation under control. Including -international financial assistance to meet current needs, simplification of taxation and the actual opening of customs for operational passing humanitarian aid. Ukrainians benefited from the Euromaidan experience (rapid construction of fortifications), the construction boom of previous years and gained during the COVID-19 pandemic experience of remote interaction between different individuals and communities. The work of Ukrainians deserves great respect power engineers, communications officers, transporters, organization of significant evacuation efforts human masses. Ukrzaliznytsia managed to evacuate millions of dangerous people seats.

The evacuation and refugees should be mentioned separately. The territory of Ukraine is forced left more than 4 million of its citizens, mostly women and children. Forcing them to flee can be called an element of Russia's strategy to counter Ukraine. Migration crisis, provoked by Russia's attack on Ukraine, became the largest in Europe since 1945. It is obvious that the Ukrainian authorities need to resolve the issue of returning refugees will be immediately after the end of hostilities, so that the migration crisis does not turn into demographic catastrophe.

The features of the agression

One of the features of the confrontation, compared to 2014, is Russian propaganda works mostly on the domestic consumer. The West's trust in Kremlin information messages was undermined by the Kremlin's hysteria in its quest to hide the real reasons for the death of flight MH17 in the sky over Donbass in the summer of 2014year. On the eve of February 24, US intelligence and its partners spoke repeatedly about the danger of invading Ukraine, creating an appropriate social climate. It was one of the first decisions of the European Commission after the beginning of the Russian aggression recommendation to limit the broadcasting of Russia Today TV channel and its functioning Sputnik Media news agency in the European Union. Meanwhile, a monolithic information space is being formed within Russia itself. Literally immediately after the start of the "special military operation" in Ukraine (recall, that the war in Georgia in 2008 was called "forced peace") in Russia ended Echo of Moscow radio station and Znak online publication. Follow them Novaya Gazeta stopped publishing. Russia's information space has come as a surprise monolithic, but this impression is misleading: there is becoming very popular Telegram, which bypasses the ban on "spreading fakes about the Russian army. "In late February, the Russian parliament passed a law that day provides for up to 15 years in prison "for attempted discrediting of the Russian army". Another telling fact is the decriminalization of punishment in Russia looting.

Sanctions against the Russian economy have indeed become unprecedented, however it is naive to expect that they will immediately reject millions of Russians from the illusion of the average class into the abyss of impoverishment. Both the size of the Russian Federation and the volume of its gold and foreign exchange are too large reserves. By the way, one who hopes that the arrest in the West is about $ 300 billion Russian gold reserves will inevitably lead to their transfer to Ukraine, creating an illusion. Such a step is possible only by the decision of the relevant court, but for now creation is not said. Russian authorities promptly accused Meta of extremism and restricted its own access to Facebook and Instagram. In fact, inside Russia a kind of information fortress under siege is being created, the functioning of which is already underway caused a significant level of support for the actions of the Russian army in Ukraine. Try it opponents of aggression to oppose were promptly suppressed by the Kremlin coercive apparatus. Interestingly, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation is vigorously initiating criminal cases "For crimes of the Ukrainian military" mostly in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. If the Russian military reports on the successes of "demilitarization" of Ukraine regularly, the situation with "denazification" is different. It is difficult to denazify a country whose president is a Jew by nationality. Russian ideological constructions should cover the consistent destruction of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure which is to reject our state in its development as much as possible. Liberation from Russian invaders of settlements in Kyiv and Chernihiv region allowed to reveal the truth about war crimes committed occupiers. Unfortunately, the dehumanization of Ukrainians, which systematically began in 2014,gave its terrible consequences. Murder, torture, rape, kidnapping became part of Russia's occupation policy. With special cynicism after the exposure massacres in Bucha publicly spoke about the need for "de-Ukrainization" political scientist Timofey Sergeytsev and Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.

 Except for crimes against civilians, which were a shock to everyone civilized world, it is worth paying attention to a number of tactical features of the forces intrusion. The targets of the missile strikes from the first days were civilian targets infrastructure, among which special attention of Russian attackers attracted TV towers. Kyiv, Kharkiv, Rivne, Melitopol, Kherson - not a complete list of cities where the Russian army tried to destroy the repeaters. Capture of Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhya, Europe's largest nuclear power plant combined with elements of nuclear blackmail, which, unfortunately, did not find an adequate response from the IAEA. In the second half In March, Russian invaders began destroying oil depots in an effort to rid the Armed Forces fuel, but failed to succeed.

I will note some illustrative propaganda messages that the Russian authorities use. The local media promotes the existence of the Armed Forces and "Nationalist battalions". In this way, the Kremlin is trying to destroy unity of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Another trick, this time counter-propaganda  andbroadcasting by RIA Novosti of numerous production videos about Russian fighting army. This is in response to numerous video evidence of the destruction of Russian equipment and servicemen distributed by Ukrainian defenders on the Internet. A separate direction was the news from the so-called DPR and LPR.Putin in a conversation with President of Kazakhstan Kasim-Zhomart Tokayev declared “special military operation to protect Donbass". By the way, very active in promotion The Kremlin's information agenda also includes anonymous telegram channels came to Ukraine in 2019.

Unexpected West

About preparation of sanctions against Russia in case of aggression against Ukraine in Washington, London and Brussels spoke on the eve of the invasion, so restrictions on economic relations with the Kremlin did not linger. Hundreds of western companies stopped their activities in Russia, not wanting to support their taxes Putin's aggressive actions. Among them are the owners of world-famous brands (although some TNCs are trying to sway in this matter), the "big four" auditors companies, Visa / Mastercard and others. However, the main issue is the ability of the West to introduce the "mother of all sanctions" - to refuse to buy coal in Russia, oil and gas. It is the energy component of sanctions that has the highest chances today reduce the activity of Russia, whose budget comes from the EU for oil and gas about a billion euros a day. The United States and the European Union, the United Kingdom and Canada, and Australia provided and continue to provide Ukraine with various assistance - financial, military, humanitarian. On In fact, Ukraine has become an outpost of the Western world in the fight against aggressive Russia empire. The realization of this is gradual, and the inertia of thinking is strong the influence of Russian lobbyists who are trying to blur the Western reaction to aggression. West is willing to provide financial resources on a scale that can impress the average person, however, Ukraine is used to serve current needs, it helps in doses weapons and military equipment (its participation in this process is carried out except that one third of NATO countries, others prefer to pause), assists with deployment Ukrainian refugees in the EU. (About this below) Regarding Ukraine's accession to NATO and the European Union, the North Atlantic Alliance looks smaller a real goal than the EU. Obviously, due to its own military-political nature. In early March, Ukraine applied to join the EU, and within a month the president Ursula von der Leyen handed over to Volodymyr  Zelensky of the European Commission in Kyiv a questionnaire, the completion of which is necessary for consideration of the application. Although about the final It is too early to say the date of Ukraine's accession to  EU or NATO Russian aggression has become a catalyst for a giant leap of our state along the way of European and Euro-Atlantic integration. European security in its usual form on February 24 simply ceased exist.

After the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, it will have to be formed again, because a broken cup cannot be glued together so that it does not leak liquid. In this situation, Ukraine needs to defend its positions more intensively, to form of national interests persistently and proactively. The basis for positioning should not be a desire to find conditions for peace with Russia at any cost, but understanding the feasibility of European and Euro-Atlantic integration as an acquisition process to new opportunities. The formula "The process is everything - the result is nothing" looks for Ukraine most acceptable today.

In Europe, the issue of ending the war in Ukraine remains relevant, after all, frozen conflicts remain painful points that can be pressed Kremlin. The position of the Georgian and Moldovan authorities, which did not support it, is surprising anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the European Union, however, were followed for Ukraine, an application for EU membership. Lukashenko's position is not surprising - he became an ally Putin, and will bear political responsibility for this, but also the issue of integration of Belarus to European security system after the Russian-Ukrainian war has not lost relevance.The citizens of Ukraine will have to get rid of illusions: a strong Ukraine in everything the world only needs them. The world has become more Ukraine-centric in recent weeks, but yes will not always be. The main task of the Ukrainian government today is to convert successes defenders of Ukraine into strengthening the position of the state in Europe, to form the status of Ukraine as a contributor to European security. Definately after the war though is too early to say when it will be finished.

Yevhen Mahda, director of Institute of World Policy